Buying Points in the NFL

[bfpsu]

Should you buy on or off the number 3 in the NFL when you get charged 20 cents for a half a point instead of 10 cents. What about buying on to or off the number 7 for a half point for 10 cents? I guess I'm asking is should you ever buy points in the NFL?
Thanks

 

[pops69]

i always buy off a hook on which ever side i'm on. you only lose if you lose, but it will help you more than not, esp in the pro's

gl

 

[quantumleap]

bfpsu:

Excellent question! I bought the book "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong. It gives the history of how many games traditionally land on those numbers and how much buying points actually costs.

One word of caution, he uses 10 years of data. These numbers should be adjusted up or down depending on the individual teams. For example, if a team is a low-scoring team they are going to win or lose by 3 points more frequently than a team that scores a lot.

Good luck!

 

[Lucky21]

Basic Math.

You should always buy the hook if you can lay NO MORE THAN -120. That's tough to find in the NFL as most books are -125 to -130.

Remember, it's not about today plays it's about beating the vig in the long haul. You will be a winner at -120 and a loser at -125 buying1/2 points on or off of the hot numbers.

Only buy number to get to the "hot number"

Football Hot Numbers - 3,4,6,7,10,13,14,17,20,21,24,28.

Lucky21

 

[20Five]

good post lucky

 

[RIOSHILL]

I along with most sharps I know buy to 3 and 7. Lately, however, it seems that the 3's and 7's are not coming into play as much. If you can buy to 3 for 130/100 or less, I would say still do it. good luck this year!!! :digit:

 

[Betmaster3000]

Just in case any of you were wondering, between 1984 and 2004 15.6% of NFL games had a score differential of 3 and 8.1% of games had a differential of 7.

 

[beenaround101]

when we did our original calculations 7 in pro against stread was not significant .I personally will buy to 7 and half if I find an off 7 meaning everyone else is at 6 and a half.

 

[winbet]

You read this crap all the time on forums, 1/2 pt here, 1/2 there, buy this, buy that, its all bollocks. Let me tell you now, if your going to fuck around with 1/2pts in games, then you are going to lose. If you dont consider a game at least 3 points off then you shouldnt be betting it, of course that takes into account that your judgement is sharp in the first place.

 

[NorthernStar]

I agree with Winbet and never buy and will more likely sell. Betmaster you give the % that landed on three. Do you have what % of the games that land on three were from games where the line was from 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 and the favorite actually won by three. That would be the best indicator of wether it is worth even considering. I never take insurance at the Blackjack table either!

 

[farbror]

There is a book (the type you read!) available that thouroughly analyze the 0.5-point situation. The conclusion was that (IF I REMEBER CORRECTLY) to always buy onto or off the 3 if the price was right (a hard to find -120).

Check out "Win More -- Loose Less" at, say, Gamblers Book Club